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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday 18 March 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 19

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2752, -1.24%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10195, -0.31%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3270, -1.13%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1312, -0.88%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
62.41, 0.60%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.11, -0.91%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1150, -4.25%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2296, -0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
106.04, -0.69%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
10684, -0.52%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
35.97, -0.33%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.85%, -1.59%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
283, 73.22%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
15.80, 7.92%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
147
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2735, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2749, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2579, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10380, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
10594, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
10161, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
15.22, 4.78%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
65.08, 0.23%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
6
3
Bearish Indications
9
12
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – RBA minutes, Employment data, New Zealand – RBNZ rate decision, Euro Zone – German ZEW economic sentiment, German PMI, German IFO business climate index, UK – CPI, Employment data, Retail sales, BOE rate decision, U.S – Home sales, Oil inventories, FOMC rate decision, Durable goods, Canada – CPI, Retail sales, Russia – Rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals march 19
Image from marketwatch.com

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Under performance in high yield and other risk assets are flashing warning signs. An interest rate shock can’t be ruled out. Indian market volatility is still below US market volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical levels to watch are 2765 (up) and 2740 (down) on the S & P and 10300 (up) and 10100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.